The UFC Rematch - By The Numbers

On December 30, 2006, the UFC presents Chuck Liddell vs. Tito Ortiz 2. It got me thinking about past rematches in the UFC. Are there any type of trends? Is there a better way to predict the outcome? The answers I found were interesting. I only used UFC rematches for research. Which means more then one fight between fighters must take place in the UFC for it to count. For the purposes of this study, I did not include the Couture/Belfort 2 fight due to the weird nature of the ending and the lack of proof it really showed with a legit outcome. All other rematches were recorded. Here are some interesting statistics:

OVERALL

• 31 Total Rematches
• 64.5% of the rematches ended like the previous fight.
  
• 35.5% ended differently then the previous fight. One of those fights is the Shamrock/Gracie 2 fight which ended in a Draw.
  

Now, this is just simple math. However, I wanted to go a step further and see if the length of time between rematches affected the outcome of the fights. And it did.

REMATCH: LESS THAN ONE YEAR

• 13 Total Rematches
• Only 2 created different outcomes (15.4%). The two fights were Lindland/Vitali 2 and Shamrock/Severn 2. The first Lindland fight was considered a fluke by many fans anyways. And the Shamrock fight was the worst in UFC history.

REMATCH: GREATER THAN ONE YEAR

• 18 Total Rematches
  
• 9 Different Outcomes (50%)

This is a MAJOR difference. Basically, if the rematch occurs quickly after the first fight, there is almost no chance for a different outcome. Now let's apply these numbers to the Liddell/Ortiz rematch.... And the possible GSP/Hughes 3 fight:

• This gives Tito Ortiz a 50% chance of beating Chuck Liddell. However, Chuck Liddell is 4-0 in rematches in his MMA career. This gives the statistical edge to Chuck.
  
• This brings new light to a possible Georges St Pierre vs. Matt Hughes rematch in 2007. Does Matt Hughes really want a quick rematch with such small odds of winning?

No matter how you think the upcoming rematches will pan out..... One thing is for certain..... Immediate Rematches in the UFC are not as warrented as they might appear to be.

Here is the overall list of UFC rematches:

• Ken Shamrock vs. Royce Gracie 2
  
• Ken Shamrock vs. Kimo Leopaldo 2
  
• Ken Shamrock vs. Dan Severn 2
  
• Ken Shamrock vs. Tito Ortiz 2
  
• Ken Shamrock vs. Tito Ortiz 3
• Dan Severn vs. Oleg Taktarov 2
• Oleg Taktarov vs. Dave Beneteau 2
• Pedro Rizzo vs. Tra Telligman 2
• Randy Couture vs. Pedro Rizzo 2
• Randy Couture vs. Vitor Belfort 3
• Fabiano Iha vs. LaVerne Clarke 2
• Don Frye vs. Mark Hall 2
• Don Frye vs. Gary Goodridge 2
• Guy Mezger vs. Tito Ortiz 2
• Chuck Liddell vs. Jeremy Horn 2
• Chuck Liddell vs. Randy Couture 2
• Chuck Liddell vs. Randy Couture 3
• Chuck Liddell vs. Renato Sobral 2
  
• Shonie Carter vs. Matt Serra 2
  
• Matt Lindland vs. Phil Baroni 2
  
• Matt Lindland vs. Falaniko Vitale 2
  
• Evan Tanner vs. Phil Baroni 2
  
• Matt Hughes vs. Carlos Newton 2
  
• Matt Hughes vs. Frank Trigg 2
  
• Matt Hughes vs. BJ Penn 2
  
• Matt Hughes vs. Georges St Pierre 2
• Andrei Arlovski vs. Tim Sylvia 2
• Andrei Arlovski vs. Tim Sylvia 3
• Forrest Griffin vs. Stephan Bonnar 2
  
• Rich Franklin vs. Evan Tanner 2
• Frank Mir vs. Wes Sims 2